Dhalgren Makes His Picks

It's 20 days to go before the election. Time to make my state-by-state picks. These are amateur, armchair picks based on the numbers from major intrastate polls as of Tuesday, October 14th. But seeing the trends and seeing how much money Barry is spending on advertising in swing states has led me to make these calls now. I'll come back and see what my win percentage is in November.

Let's start with the 'known knowns'. These are the states that John McCain and Sarah Palin will win:

State (Electoral Votes)
Alaska (5)
Idaho (4)
Montana (4)
Wyoming (3)
Utah (5)
Arizona (10)
South Dakota (3)
Nebraska (5)
Kansas (6)
Oklahoma (7)
Texas (34)
Arkansas (6)
Louisiana (9)
Kentucky (8)

Tennessee (11)
Mississippi (6)
Alabama (9)
South Carolina (8)

McCain Electoral Vote Subtotal: 143

Here are the states Barack Obama and Joe Biden will win:

State (Electoral Votes)
Hawaii (4)
Washington (11)
Oregon (7)
California (55)
Minnesota (10)
Wisconsin (10)
Illinois (21)
Michigan (17)
DC (3)
Maryland (10)
Delaware (3)
New Jersey (15)

New York (31)
Maine (4)

Vermont (3)
Massachusetts (12)
Rhode Island (4)
Connecticut (7)

Obama Electoral Vote Subtotal: 227

Now for the 'known unknowns'. These are states where the polls have tightened in recent days. These will either embarrass me or put me over the top. Here are my picks.

State (Electroral Votes) & Dhalgren’s Pick
New Mexico (5) - Obama
Colorado (9) - Obama
Nevada (5) - Obama
North Dakota (3) - McCain
Missouri (11) - Obama
Georgia (15) - McCain
North Carolina (15) - Obama
Ohio (20) - McCain
Indiana (11) - McCain
Iowa (7) - Obama
Florida (27) - Obama
West Virginia (5) - Obama
Virginia (13) - Obama
Pennsylvania (21) - Obama
New Hampshire (4) - Obama

Grand totals:
Obama 348
McCain 192

Ok, I just predicted an Obama landslide, and that wasn't my intent here. I'm no trash talker or Joe Namath. But looking at the poll numbers, that's what it looks like.

I predict between 63 and 65 Million votes for Barack Obama, considering George W. Bush set a contemporary record of 62M in 2004. I think Obama will top that record.

Or put it this way, if you are throwing an election night party for Obama, you can pop the champagne once McCain loses Florida, Ohio, or Pennsylvania. He needs all three of those states to win, because Obama is poised to take several 'red' states from 2004. I predict McCain will win Ohio. So it won't be a short party. We should know who won the election around the stroke of midnight.

UPDATE: Chris Weigant at Huffington Post has made his picks. He's more conservative with his numbers. But interestingly, he draws almost the same conclusion regarding election night. He says that if Obama wins Florida and Virginia, then you can pop the cork well before midnight.